Japan's foreign arrivals fell 5% in September, but visitor spending still rose

Japan's run of falling visitor numbers continued in September. The Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) said on October 21 that 3,103,700 international visitors arrived during the month, 5% fewer than in September 2025. At the same time, the government's quarterly survey found that visitors spent more overall, and more per person.

Below are the main figures, the reasons JNTO gave, and what the numbers can and cannot tell people in Canada who are planning a trip.

The headline numbers

JNTO's monthly estimate showed 3,103,700 arrivals in September 2026. According to The Japan Times, this followed a 9.6% drop in August. That brought the January–September total to 30.73 million, down 2.9% from the same period last year.

The picture differs sharply from one market to another. As reported by The Japan Times, the figures break down like this:

The same report says arrivals from China fell 55.5% to 3.34 million over January–September. It also says seven markets, including South Korea, Mexico and the Middle East, had their highest September arrivals on record.

These figures are early estimates. A guide from ISMEC explains that JNTO's first figure for each month is rounded. More detailed provisional numbers come out about two months later.

Why arrivals fell, according to JNTO

The drop is not only about China. According to Travel And Tour World, JNTO's September release named three other factors:

• higher airfares linked to conditions in the Middle East
• fewer flights
• flights cancelled because of typhoons

The outlet notes that JNTO did not say how much of the drop came from each cause.

The same article says JNTO credited more airline seats and holiday timing for growth from South Korea and Taiwan. That growth came even though typhoons also cancelled flights in those markets. The Japan Times specifically mentions South Korea's Chuseok holiday.

It also helps to know what is counted. JNTO's notes on its statistical tables say visitor arrivals include expatriates and their families and international students entering Japan. Crew members and permanent residents based in Japan are excluded. So "visitor arrivals" covers more than holidaymakers.

Fewer visitors, more spending

The Japan Tourism Agency estimated that international visitors spent about ¥2.21 trillion in July–September 2026, up 3.2% from a year earlier. According to The Japan Times, that increase came even though arrivals for the quarter fell 4.8%.

Travel And Tour World, citing the agency's Inbound Consumption Survey, reports that average spending per general foreign visitor was about ¥234,000, up 6.1%. Keep in mind that this is a quarterly figure, while the arrivals data is monthly, so the two are not directly comparable.

One more figure may interest Japanese readers in Canada: The Japan Times reports that 1.48 million Japanese nationals travelled abroad in September, up 6.3% from a year earlier.

What about travellers from Canada?

We could not find Canada's September 2026 figure in any of the pages available to us. So we won't guess at it. JNTO's breakdown by country is published on its Japan Tourism Statistics site, which lets users look up figures by country or area.

For longer-term context, TravelPulse reported that Canadian arrivals topped 688,000 in 2025, up 18% from 579,445 in 2024. The same article says Air Canada plans to launch Vancouver–Sapporo non-stop flights in December 2026. That service is scheduled to run three times a week through March 2027.

Our view: It is tempting to read a 5% national drop as a sign of emptier sights or cheaper trips, but the data doesn't support that. Most of the fall comes from one market, China, while several other markets grew or set records. Travel And Tour World also points out that the release gives no basis for predicting hotel prices, and it publishes no average airfare increase.

In practice, the September figures say little about any single trip. Fares, schedules and weather on your own route and dates matter far more. If typhoons are a concern, Travel And Tour World suggests confirming flight status directly with your airline and reading accommodation cancellation terms. It also suggests checking what your insurance actually covers for disruptions.

The next monthly estimate from JNTO will show whether this trend continues into the autumn season.

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