Japan's 2026 new-crop rice is cheaper than last year's, a rare reversal after the rice crisis

In autumn, freshly harvested rice (shinmai) usually sells at a premium in Japanese supermarkets. This year that has flipped. The first wholesale prices for the 2026 crop came in far below last year's, and reports say some stores now sell new rice for less than rice from the 2025 harvest.

This matters to anyone who followed Japan's "Reiwa rice crisis" from Canada, whether you have family in Japan or plan a trip. Here is what the numbers show and what is still unclear.

A 42% drop at the wholesale level

The main figure comes from Japan's agriculture ministry. Jiji Press, via Nippon.com, reported on October 16 that the average price collectors charged wholesalers in September was 21,293 yen per 60 kilograms of brown rice. That is 42% lower than a year earlier.

September is the first month that includes deals for the 2026 crop. Even after the drop, Jiji notes, the price is still the third highest on record, behind only 2024 and 2025. So rice is getting cheaper, but it is not back to old levels.

For comparison, the Japan Times reported that 2025-crop rice sold to wholesalers in August averaged 31,556 yen per 60 kg of unmilled rice.

Why new rice now costs less than old rice

The main cause is the large amount of rice still left over. According to Jiji, high stocks of last year's harvest meant only 54,000 tons of new rice moved from collectors to wholesalers in September. That is down 66% from a year earlier and the second lowest since comparable data began in 2006.

News On Japan credits a TBS broadcast for its report and calls the situation an unusual reversal. It says new rice normally sells at a premium because it is fresh and seasonal. The site also reports that a survey of supermarkets in and around Kanto found 5 kg bags of new rice generally priced at around 2,000 yen as of October 20.

We could not confirm the 2,000-yen Kanto figure in a major print outlet, so read it as one TV-based survey, not a national average. In the same report, Shunsuke Orikasa of the Distribution Economics Institute of Japan says he expects an average-sized 2026 harvest. He suggests new-rice prices could stay between 2,000 and 2,500 yen per 5 kg.

Where national supermarket prices stand

The ministry's weekly survey covers about 1,000 supermarkets and gives a broader picture. Here are some points from recent coverage:

The September 7–13 figure was the first time the average dropped below 3,000 yen since early September 2024, Nippon.com reports. The site links the fall to more supply after the government released its reserves and the bigger 2025 harvest reached stores.

The September 21–27 figure, released on October 2, was the seventh weekly decline in a row.

For scale, Japan Soso describes roughly 2,000 yen per 5 kg as the price before the crisis. If the Kanto reports are right, new rice in some stores is close to that level again.

Good news for shoppers, worry for farmers

Jiji says the lower wholesale prices are expected to bring retail prices down and ease pressure on household budgets. The same report notes concern that farmers could lose money as costs for materials and fuel keep rising.

That concern reaches the top. In September, the Japan Times reported that the agriculture minister called the situation extremely difficult for farmers trying to stay in business.

Our view: This looks less like the end of the rice story and more like a new phase. Shoppers in Japan are getting relief, but a surplus big enough to push new rice below old rice suggests the market is still unsettled. Watch the weekly ministry data over the next few months, and policy decisions about stocks and farm support.

For readers in Canada, these are prices inside Japan. None of the sources we checked says anything about Japanese rice sold here, so don't expect the same drop on Canadian shelves.

Talk rice with the community

Have you heard what family in Japan are paying for this year's shinmai? Do you have a favourite way to cook new rice? Share it on the DOJI community board. To connect with more Japanese speakers across Canada, join DOJI.